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Short name:
IA2030 – IG 1.1 Save Lives
Data type:
Count
Rationale:
Indicator selected for global monitoring for Immunization Agenda 2030 Impact Goal 1: Prevent Disease.

  Global partners can use the modeling results for advocacy in securing commitment and resources for immunization programmes.

  Modeled estimates project the number of deaths that could be averted from 2021-2030 by achieving IA2030’s aspirational coverage targets for WHO-recommended vaccines. The current scope of analysis includes vaccines against 14 pathogens. A mid-decade update will include estimates for additional pathogens.

Definition:
• Estimated number of future deaths averted, based on estimated vaccine coverage from WUENIC.

• Target number of future deaths averted, based on the IA2030 coverage scenario*.

* The current IA2030 coverage scenario captures lives saved from 14 pathogens: Hepatitis B, Haemophilus influenzae type B (Hib), Human papillomavirus (HPV), Japanese encephalitis (JE), measles, Meningococcus A, Streptococcus pneumoniae, rotavirus, rubella, yellow fever, diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis, and tuberculosis (BCG) • Baseline year: 2019 • Target: 50 million total future deaths averted from 2021-2030, with an average of 5 million deaths averted each year

Associated terms:
Impact, Vaccination
Disaggregation:
WHO Regions, pathogen, income group
Method of measurement
Immunization coverage data: National immunization programme

Population estimates: Civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems, population censuses or registers, population registers, household surveys

M&E Framework:
Outcome
Method of estimation:
Step 1: Estimated deaths and deaths averted, collected from multiple data sources, are converted into a single measure of country-, age-, and vaccine-specific relative risk of death conditional upon vaccine coverage levels.

• Estimated deaths averted are the product of updated WUENIC vaccine coverage and impact ratio (deaths averted per fully vaccinated person)

• Translate coverage and population estimates in fully vaccinated persons (FVPs)

• Convert FVPs to estimated deaths averted

• Compare estimated deaths averted to estimated target deaths averted

Step 2: Relative-risk model is used to predict deaths averted in all locations and diseases.

Step 3: Additional calibration converts the estimates into deaths averted by year of vaccination, which allows for capturing the lifetime effect of vaccination aggregated for the year the vaccines are delivered.

Method of estimation of global and regional aggregates:
Sum
Preferred data sources:
WHO/UNICEF Estimates of National Immunization Coverage (WUENIC)
estimates of deaths averted from the Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium (VIMC)
Global Burden of Disease Study, and other model inputs from published literature
National population estimates: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division's World Population Prospects national population estimates.
Unit of Measure:
N/A
Unit Multiplier:
N/A
Expected frequency of data dissemination:
Annual
Expected frequency of data collection:
Annual
Contact person email:
vpdata@who.int
IMRID:
7790
Limitations:
A counterfactual of “no vaccination”, as opposed to partial vaccination, is used to calculate the estimates, and vaccine coverage estimates capture only vaccines delivered through the routine immunization system (the impact on vaccine coverage from supplementary immunization activities (SIAs) is not captured).

Limitations on population estimates used to calculate model estimates can be found on the WPP website, and include:

• Variability in reliability and timeliness of demographic data (e.g., if a recent census is not available for a country, estimates are projected using historical data)

Links:
IA2030 Annex 1: Monitoring and Evaluation Framework || https://immunizationagenda2030.org/images/documents/IA2030_Annex_FrameworkForActionv04.pdf
IA2030 Scorecard: IG 1.1 Save lives || https://scorecard.immunizationagenda2030.org/ig1.1
Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium || https://www.vaccineimpact.org/
UNDP World Population Prospects Methodology || https://population.un.org/wpp/Methodology/
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