Can today’s weather and health data help us predict future disease outbreaks?
In the Lao People’s Democratic Republic an innovative system is being trialled to do exactly that. The system is based on an understanding of the links between weather, climate and certain diseases.
Because the breeding patterns of mosquitoes that transmit dengue are linked to water, where they can lay their eggs, tracking rainfall data helps to predict when and where dengue outbreaks are likely to occur. Importantly, this sort of data can be used to make predictions before people become ill.
Diseases like dengue are called “climate-sensitive” because climate change affects weather patterns (including rainfall, temperature and humidity). In Lao PDR climate change is resulting in more rain and rising temperatures across the country, leading to more people getting dengue, and in places where dengue had not previously been a risk. By 2050, the country is projected to experience more extreme weather, a 10–30% increase in rainy season rainfall, as well as temperature increases of 2–3 °C, further exacerbating impacts on health.
The new system – the Climate Integrated Early Warning and Response System, or CI-EWARS – integrates weather data into Lao PDR’s health information systems. Currently a pilot, it will allow health authorities to better plan, prepare and issue advice to communities so they can protect themselves against climate-sensitive diseases.
“While we are still in the early stages of testing, the potential of this system is very exciting,” said Oyuntogos Lkhasuren, WHO Lao PDR’s Climate and Environment Team Lead.
“Integrating weather and health data could not only dramatically improve Lao PDR’s ability to predict outbreaks, it also brings health, climate and environment, and data teams from different ministries and organisations together in new ways. Apart from dengue, diarrhoeal disease is another climate-sensitive disease that could be addressed using this new system.”
Globally, diarrhoeal disease is the second leading cause of death in children under five years old. Being able to forecast outbreaks and mobilise responses early will save lives.
Dr Lkhasuren said: “When we add weather data into existing health data, we see a clear link between low rainfall and high temperatures, and outbreaks of diarrhoea. We think this is because low rainfall, for example, means that streams dry up, forcing people to rely on poorer quality water for drinking.”
Dr Bounthanom Phimmasone, Deputy Director of the Ministry of Health’s Department of Hygiene and Health Promotion is also enthusiastic about the new system, saying: “It has been fantastic to watch this initiative come to life and patterns in the data emerge.”
While disease prediction like this is not new, in the past, linking weather data with climate-sensitive disease data has been limited to academic studies using models that require extensive human inputs and adjustments.
The new system is unique in being designed to provide a continuous flow of weather data from a network of weather monitoring stations around the country, integrated into the Ministry of Health’s information system. It forms part of efforts ensure the health system is more climate resilient, guided by the Government of Lao PDR’s Health National Adaptation Plan.
One of the major challenges remaining, outlined by Achala Jayatilleke, WHO Lao PDR’s Health Information Systems Technical Officer, is: “Health sectors don’t traditionally work with climate data and often aren’t equipped to translate this into actionable information. Reaching an agreement for continuous data sharing between the health and environment sectors is currently a key focus of our work.”
He continued: “The next steps are to continue building the system, so it is fully interoperable, and data exchange is seamless and automatic. We’re focused on making sure the data is available to the Ministry of Health and decision-makers in a timely and easily accessible way, to ensure rapid decision-making and action can follow.”
The CI-EWARS system was jointly developed by WHO and the Ministry of Health and Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, with support from the Global Environment Facility (GEF) and the Green Climate Fund (GCF).