How to develop an evidence-informed theory of change for health: WHO technical guidance

Overview

This guide discusses how to use and incorporate evidence into the processes of developing and updating a theory of change (ToC) in the health sector. A ToC is an approach to developing a systematic and visual representation of how a programme or intervention is expected to achieve its intended outcomes. ToCs can help when designing and planning interventions, implementing interventions, monitoring and evaluation, promoting transparency, policy transfer and scaling up, as well as supporting institutional strategic plans. As such, ToCs are an important resource for evidence-informed health policies. This guide presents a six-stage process for integrating evidence into ToCs: 1. Define the problem; 2. Define expected outcomes; 3. Define the interventions; 4. Define change mechanisms and build a model of the Theory of Change; 5. Validate the Theory of Change; and 6. Revise the Theory of Change. The target audience of this guide are health professionals, policy-makers, researchers, members of civil society, staff in international organizations such as the World Health Organization (WHO), and other stakeholders interested in promoting effective health policies through the use of ToCs and high-quality evidence.